IMF expects Armenia's GDP growth to slow to 5.3% in 2026 if trade disruptions due to Middle East war materialize

YEREVAN, April 18. /ARКА/. The IMF expects Armenia's real GDP growth to remain strong but slow to 5.3% in 2026 as domestic demand weakens and some of the trade disruptions caused by the Middle East war materialize, said Alexander Timan, head of the IMF mission to Armenia.

This statement comes following a visit of the IMF mission led by Alexander Timan to Yerevan on March 19-30.

"Inflation is expected to remain elevated in the near term, driven by rising oil prices and higher logistics costs due to trade route diversion, but will return to the Central Bank of Armenia's target level over the medium term," Timan said in the statement released by the Fund's press service.

It is noted that risks to this forecast are associated with the unprecedented uncertainty caused by the ongoing war in the Middle East.

"In the short term, these include further commodity price volatility, trade disruptions, and rising trade logistics costs.

In the medium term, Armenia could be impacted by a possible slowdown in trading partner growth and tighter global financial conditions.

On the positive side, growth could exceed expectations if the transport links underpinning the peace declaration are implemented more quickly," the statement states.

The state budget for 2026 projects economic growth in Armenia at 5.4%. -0-