World Bank Improves Armenia's Economic Growth Forecasts for 2026 and 2027
12.06.2026,
10:36
The World Bank expects Armenia's economy to grow by 5.3% in 2026, 5.1% in 2027, and 5% in 2028.
YEREVAN, June 11. /ARKA/. The World Bank expects Armenia's economy to grow by 5.3% in 2026, 5.1% in 2027, and 5% in 2028. This forecast is contained in the World Bank's June 2026 Global Economic Prospects report.
Recall that in the January 2026 Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank forecast Armenia's economic growth for 2026 was 4.9%, and for 2027, 4.7%. Thus, the January forecast has been improved by 0.4 percentage points for the current and next years.
Europe and Central Asia
The World Bank expects growth in the ECA region to slow to 2.1% in 2026, weakening in about 70% of the region's economies, before accelerating to 2.4% in 2027–2028. The slowdown is expected to put pressure on labor markets, weakening job creation in the near term amid persistent demographic challenges.
Most ECA economies are net energy importers and are expected to face adverse effects from higher commodity prices in 2026.
Inflation is expected to rise in 2026, driven by higher energy and food prices, and then moderate in 2027–2028 as pressure from commodity markets eases. The pass-through of rising energy prices to inflation is expected to be stronger in energy-importing countries with a high share of energy in their consumer price index, such as Armenia, Georgia, and Serbia.
The external balances of energy-importing countries are expected to deteriorate in 2026 due to rising energy costs and weakening external demand, primarily due to the eurozone economic slowdown. High energy prices are likely to hit Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, and Turkey hardest, where net energy imports exceed 70% of domestic energy consumption.
Global Forecasts
The World Bank has downgraded its global economic outlook, warning that the war in the Middle East will slow global growth to 2.5% in 2026 from 2.9% a year earlier.
According to the World Bank, the conflict has already caused a sharp rise in energy prices, renewed inflationary pressures, and heightened expectations of monetary policy tightening. The World Bank expects the average price of Brent crude oil to reach $94 per barrel this year—36% higher than the 2025 level—and global inflation to accelerate to 4%, up from 3.3% a year earlier.
Figures and forecasts for the economy and inflation in Armenia
The 2026 state budget projects economic growth in Armenia at 5.4%. According to preliminary statistics, Armenia's GDP grew by 4% in the first quarter of this year compared to January-March 2025. According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the first quarter of this year, Armenia's GDP growth is expected to be 7.1-4.7% by the end of 2026, 5.7-5.3% in 2027, and 4.9-5.2% in 2028, depending on scenario (A-B). Armenia's economic growth forecasts from international financial institutions for 2026: EDB - 5.3%; WB - 5.3%; IMF - 5.25%; ADB - 5.5%, EBRD - 5.5%, S&P Global Ratings - 5.3%; Fitch Ratings - above 5% (for 2026-2027).
Recall that in the January 2026 Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank forecast Armenia's economic growth for 2026 was 4.9%, and for 2027, 4.7%. Thus, the January forecast has been improved by 0.4 percentage points for the current and next years.
Europe and Central Asia
The World Bank expects growth in the ECA region to slow to 2.1% in 2026, weakening in about 70% of the region's economies, before accelerating to 2.4% in 2027–2028. The slowdown is expected to put pressure on labor markets, weakening job creation in the near term amid persistent demographic challenges.
Most ECA economies are net energy importers and are expected to face adverse effects from higher commodity prices in 2026.
Inflation is expected to rise in 2026, driven by higher energy and food prices, and then moderate in 2027–2028 as pressure from commodity markets eases. The pass-through of rising energy prices to inflation is expected to be stronger in energy-importing countries with a high share of energy in their consumer price index, such as Armenia, Georgia, and Serbia.
The external balances of energy-importing countries are expected to deteriorate in 2026 due to rising energy costs and weakening external demand, primarily due to the eurozone economic slowdown. High energy prices are likely to hit Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, and Turkey hardest, where net energy imports exceed 70% of domestic energy consumption.
Global Forecasts
The World Bank has downgraded its global economic outlook, warning that the war in the Middle East will slow global growth to 2.5% in 2026 from 2.9% a year earlier.
According to the World Bank, the conflict has already caused a sharp rise in energy prices, renewed inflationary pressures, and heightened expectations of monetary policy tightening. The World Bank expects the average price of Brent crude oil to reach $94 per barrel this year—36% higher than the 2025 level—and global inflation to accelerate to 4%, up from 3.3% a year earlier.
Figures and forecasts for the economy and inflation in Armenia
The 2026 state budget projects economic growth in Armenia at 5.4%. According to preliminary statistics, Armenia's GDP grew by 4% in the first quarter of this year compared to January-March 2025. According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the first quarter of this year, Armenia's GDP growth is expected to be 7.1-4.7% by the end of 2026, 5.7-5.3% in 2027, and 4.9-5.2% in 2028, depending on scenario (A-B). Armenia's economic growth forecasts from international financial institutions for 2026: EDB - 5.3%; WB - 5.3%; IMF - 5.25%; ADB - 5.5%, EBRD - 5.5%, S&P Global Ratings - 5.3%; Fitch Ratings - above 5% (for 2026-2027).
