Instability surrounding Iran could prolong a period of high uncertainty for Armenia – Tavadyan
16.07.2026,
15:00
Events surrounding Iran could drag on for years, so Armenia needs to carefully assess economic, financial, and migration risks, said Aghasi Tavadyan, founder of tvyal.com, in an interview with ARKA news agency.
YEREVAN, July 16. /ARKA/. Events surrounding Iran could drag on for years, so Armenia needs to carefully assess economic, financial, and migration risks, said Aghasi Tavadyan, founder of tvyal.com, in an interview with ARKA news agency.
"There's a high probability that events in Iran will drag on for many years, and we will be living in a period of great uncertainty for years to come," he said.
According to Tavadyan, instability in the Middle East poses a particular threat to Armenia, as the country directly borders Iran and is closely linked to the global financial system.
The expert noted that Armenia saw a significant influx of Iranian capital in the last quarter of 2025. A similar process occurred after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, when large financial resources also flowed into the country. "As a result, last year's economic growth reached 7.2%, exceeding domestic and international forecasts by 2 percentage points, and also enriched the banking system. However, this effect was more short-lived than the Russian wave of 2022," Tavadyan said.
In his assessment, one of the key geopolitical risks from the current situation in the Middle East remains the possible destabilization of Iran and the associated influx of refugees into the Syunik region.
Tavadyan noted that, according to various estimates, 13-16 million people out of the country's approximately 90 million population live in the Iranian territories adjacent to Armenia.
The expert also pointed out Armenia's dependence, as a small, open economy, on the state of the global financial system and incoming funds.
"If the global financial system cracks and a financial crisis begins, resulting in a cessation or reduction of financial flows to Armenia, the Armenian economy will immediately contract significantly, as it did in 2009, when the economy contracted by 14.1%," Tavadyan said.
Economic Opportunities and Risks
At the same time, he believes that regional instability could also create certain economic opportunities for Armenia, related to capital inflows and its role as a transit hub.
"The mechanism of economic growth is as follows: large amounts of money flow into Armenia, and through the banking system, they find their way into the real estate and construction markets as speculative investments, as well as into third countries. The main economic growth in the Republic of Armenia is based on the financial sector, real estate, construction, and services," Tavadyan said.
He also noted the negative impact of capital inflows on the real sector of the economy. Tavadyan noted the significant strengthening of the Armenian dram since 2022. "This has a negative impact, first and foremost, on production and exports, which suffer due to the reduced competitiveness of our goods," he stated.
The expert cited the potential disruption of Armenia's foreign policy balance as another significant risk.
"If Armenia deviates in one direction or another, whether toward Russia or the EU, the losses will be very significant. We need to maintain a balance," he said.
The expert also believes that the republic must be prepared for potential regional threats not only economically but also defensively.
"The military 'porcupine principle' must apply here: we are small, but no one should touch us. The Armenian government must be able to take advantage of all potential stresses, calculating and avoiding negative developments," Tavadyan stated.
"There's a high probability that events in Iran will drag on for many years, and we will be living in a period of great uncertainty for years to come," he said.
According to Tavadyan, instability in the Middle East poses a particular threat to Armenia, as the country directly borders Iran and is closely linked to the global financial system.
The expert noted that Armenia saw a significant influx of Iranian capital in the last quarter of 2025. A similar process occurred after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, when large financial resources also flowed into the country. "As a result, last year's economic growth reached 7.2%, exceeding domestic and international forecasts by 2 percentage points, and also enriched the banking system. However, this effect was more short-lived than the Russian wave of 2022," Tavadyan said.
In his assessment, one of the key geopolitical risks from the current situation in the Middle East remains the possible destabilization of Iran and the associated influx of refugees into the Syunik region.
Tavadyan noted that, according to various estimates, 13-16 million people out of the country's approximately 90 million population live in the Iranian territories adjacent to Armenia.
The expert also pointed out Armenia's dependence, as a small, open economy, on the state of the global financial system and incoming funds.
"If the global financial system cracks and a financial crisis begins, resulting in a cessation or reduction of financial flows to Armenia, the Armenian economy will immediately contract significantly, as it did in 2009, when the economy contracted by 14.1%," Tavadyan said.
Economic Opportunities and Risks
At the same time, he believes that regional instability could also create certain economic opportunities for Armenia, related to capital inflows and its role as a transit hub.
"The mechanism of economic growth is as follows: large amounts of money flow into Armenia, and through the banking system, they find their way into the real estate and construction markets as speculative investments, as well as into third countries. The main economic growth in the Republic of Armenia is based on the financial sector, real estate, construction, and services," Tavadyan said.
He also noted the negative impact of capital inflows on the real sector of the economy. Tavadyan noted the significant strengthening of the Armenian dram since 2022. "This has a negative impact, first and foremost, on production and exports, which suffer due to the reduced competitiveness of our goods," he stated.
The expert cited the potential disruption of Armenia's foreign policy balance as another significant risk.
"If Armenia deviates in one direction or another, whether toward Russia or the EU, the losses will be very significant. We need to maintain a balance," he said.
The expert also believes that the republic must be prepared for potential regional threats not only economically but also defensively.
"The military 'porcupine principle' must apply here: we are small, but no one should touch us. The Armenian government must be able to take advantage of all potential stresses, calculating and avoiding negative developments," Tavadyan stated.
