World Bank identifies sole driver of June inflation acceleration in Armenia
17.07.2026,
18:07
The sole driver of inflation acceleration in Armenia in June compared to May was food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, which rose from 6.4% to 8.6%, accounting for almost two-thirds of overall inflation.
YEREVAN, July 17. /ARKA/. The sole driver of inflation acceleration in Armenia in June compared to May was food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, which rose from 6.4% to 8.6%, accounting for almost two-thirds of overall inflation. This is according to the World Bank's "Armenia Monthly Economic Update – July 2026."
"Inflation remained elevated, increasing by 5.1% (y/y) in June. This followed a slowdown to 4.2% in May, bringing average inflation for the first half of 2026 to 4.6%," the study states.
It is noted that alcoholic beverages and education also continued to exhibit high inflation—7.5% and 8.3% (y/y), respectively.
"On June 16, 2026, the Board of the Central Bank of Armenia decided to keep the refinancing rate unchanged at 6.5% to balance two opposing pressures: excess demand and higher inflation expectations, on the one hand, and potential deflationary pressure, particularly amid emerging problems with exports to Russia, on the other," World Bank analysts noted.
The 2026 Armenian state budget projects inflation at 3% (±1%). According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the second quarter of this year, inflation in Armenia is expected to range from 4.1% to 3.9% by the end of 2026, depending on scenario (A-B), with a forecast of 3.6% to 2.9% for 2027 and 3.3% to 2.9% for 2028.
"Inflation remained elevated, increasing by 5.1% (y/y) in June. This followed a slowdown to 4.2% in May, bringing average inflation for the first half of 2026 to 4.6%," the study states.
It is noted that alcoholic beverages and education also continued to exhibit high inflation—7.5% and 8.3% (y/y), respectively.
"On June 16, 2026, the Board of the Central Bank of Armenia decided to keep the refinancing rate unchanged at 6.5% to balance two opposing pressures: excess demand and higher inflation expectations, on the one hand, and potential deflationary pressure, particularly amid emerging problems with exports to Russia, on the other," World Bank analysts noted.
The 2026 Armenian state budget projects inflation at 3% (±1%). According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the second quarter of this year, inflation in Armenia is expected to range from 4.1% to 3.9% by the end of 2026, depending on scenario (A-B), with a forecast of 3.6% to 2.9% for 2027 and 3.3% to 2.9% for 2028.
