A reduction in exports to Russia could affect up to 1.5-2% of Armenia's GDP, says Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank
04.08.2026,
19:15
If Armenian exports to Russia are reduced or stopped, a portion of the Armenian economy equivalent to approximately 1.5-2% of GDP could be at risk, stated Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Armenia Hovhannes Khachatryan.
YEREVAN, August 4. /ARKA/. If Armenian exports to Russia are reduced or stopped, a portion of the Armenian economy equivalent to approximately 1.5-2% of GDP could be at risk, stated Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Armenia Hovhannes Khachatryan.
"In our analytical materials, we noted that several effects could arise in such a case. First, there would be a reduction in prices for the relevant goods. For example, a similar situation has already been observed with fish," Khachatryan said at a press conference on Tuesday, responding to a question from ARKA news agency.
A second possible consequence, he said, would be a reduction in the incomes of individuals and companies operating in the relevant sectors. "This, in turn, would mean a reduction in demand in the economy as a whole, since a reduction in these individuals' incomes would also reduce their consumption," the Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank noted.
According to the regulator, the risk is estimated at approximately 1.5–2% of GDP.
"We are talking about a portion of the economy that could be vulnerable to reduced supplies, their redirection to other markets, or the sale of goods at lower prices," Khachatryan said.
Restrictions on the supply of Armenian products to Russia
Since the end of May, Russia has been gradually introducing restrictions on the supply of certain products from Armenia, citing violations of phytosanitary requirements. The restrictions include flowers, mineral water, certain types of alcoholic beverages, vegetables, fruits, berries, grapes, potatoes, dried fruits, and later live fish and fish products, and, starting on July 27, dairy products.
On August 4, it was announced that sales in Russia of more than 70,000 bottles of BZHNI and Prosto Azbuka drinking water, including children's water, and the non-alcoholic Mojito brand DARBAS have been suspended.
The restrictions also include a ban on the transit of products of Armenian origin through Russia to other EAEU countries.
"In our analytical materials, we noted that several effects could arise in such a case. First, there would be a reduction in prices for the relevant goods. For example, a similar situation has already been observed with fish," Khachatryan said at a press conference on Tuesday, responding to a question from ARKA news agency.
A second possible consequence, he said, would be a reduction in the incomes of individuals and companies operating in the relevant sectors. "This, in turn, would mean a reduction in demand in the economy as a whole, since a reduction in these individuals' incomes would also reduce their consumption," the Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank noted.
According to the regulator, the risk is estimated at approximately 1.5–2% of GDP.
"We are talking about a portion of the economy that could be vulnerable to reduced supplies, their redirection to other markets, or the sale of goods at lower prices," Khachatryan said.
Restrictions on the supply of Armenian products to Russia
Since the end of May, Russia has been gradually introducing restrictions on the supply of certain products from Armenia, citing violations of phytosanitary requirements. The restrictions include flowers, mineral water, certain types of alcoholic beverages, vegetables, fruits, berries, grapes, potatoes, dried fruits, and later live fish and fish products, and, starting on July 27, dairy products.
On August 4, it was announced that sales in Russia of more than 70,000 bottles of BZHNI and Prosto Azbuka drinking water, including children's water, and the non-alcoholic Mojito brand DARBAS have been suspended.
The restrictions also include a ban on the transit of products of Armenian origin through Russia to other EAEU countries.
