Expert says accidental war in Nagorno-Karabakh impossible
07.06.2017,
16:54
Accidental war in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone is impossible, Alexander Iskandaryan, the director of the Yerevan-based Caucasus Institute said today.
YEREVAN, June 7. /ARKA/. Accidental war in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone is impossible, Alexander Iskandaryan, the director of the Yerevan-based Caucasus Institute said today, adding that both sides control their armed forces, although each of them may overestimate its own forces and underestimate the enemy’s ones.
Speaking about an International Crisis Group’s (ICG) latest report, in which it claims the inevitability of an all-out war in the conflict zone, Iskandaryan said the ICG predicts this in each of its reports on Nagorno-Karabakh.
He said in his opinion, there is a confusion in terminology, and the possible developments of which warned the International Crisis Group are not a war, but escalation of tension.
According to ICG, Armenia and Azerbaijan are closer now to war over the Nagorno-Karabakh region than at any point since a ceasefire brokered more than 20 years ago.
"While violence remains at a relatively low boil, any escalation quickly could spin out of control," the think-tank said. The ICG said also that Russia remains the most influential foreign player, yet its role is complex.
According to Iskandaryan, after the April 2016, Armenia succeeded in tilting the balance of power in its advantage, which, according to the expert, means there will not be large-scale military operations in the next 2-3 years. Iskandaryan, however, believes that seasonal escalations are quite likely.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict erupted into armed clashes after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s as the predominantly Armenian-populated enclave of Azerbaijan sought to secede from Azerbaijan and declared its independence backed by a successful referendum.
On May 12, 1994, the Bishkek cease-fire agreement put an end to the military operations. A truce was brokered by Russia in 1994, although no permanent peace agreement has been signed. Since then, Nagorno-Karabakh and several adjacent regions have been under the control of Armenian forces of Karabakh.
Nagorno-Karabakh is the longest-running post-Soviet era conflict and has continued to simmer despite the relative peace of the past two decades, with snipers causing tens of deaths a year.
On April 2, 2016, Azerbaijan launched military assaults along the entire perimeter of its contact line with Nagorno-Karabakh. Four days later a cease-fire was reached. -0-
Speaking about an International Crisis Group’s (ICG) latest report, in which it claims the inevitability of an all-out war in the conflict zone, Iskandaryan said the ICG predicts this in each of its reports on Nagorno-Karabakh.
He said in his opinion, there is a confusion in terminology, and the possible developments of which warned the International Crisis Group are not a war, but escalation of tension.
According to ICG, Armenia and Azerbaijan are closer now to war over the Nagorno-Karabakh region than at any point since a ceasefire brokered more than 20 years ago.
"While violence remains at a relatively low boil, any escalation quickly could spin out of control," the think-tank said. The ICG said also that Russia remains the most influential foreign player, yet its role is complex.
According to Iskandaryan, after the April 2016, Armenia succeeded in tilting the balance of power in its advantage, which, according to the expert, means there will not be large-scale military operations in the next 2-3 years. Iskandaryan, however, believes that seasonal escalations are quite likely.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict erupted into armed clashes after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s as the predominantly Armenian-populated enclave of Azerbaijan sought to secede from Azerbaijan and declared its independence backed by a successful referendum.
On May 12, 1994, the Bishkek cease-fire agreement put an end to the military operations. A truce was brokered by Russia in 1994, although no permanent peace agreement has been signed. Since then, Nagorno-Karabakh and several adjacent regions have been under the control of Armenian forces of Karabakh.
Nagorno-Karabakh is the longest-running post-Soviet era conflict and has continued to simmer despite the relative peace of the past two decades, with snipers causing tens of deaths a year.
On April 2, 2016, Azerbaijan launched military assaults along the entire perimeter of its contact line with Nagorno-Karabakh. Four days later a cease-fire was reached. -0-
