Withdrawal from EAEU could have serious consequences for Armenia amid the struggle between West and East — economist (EXCLUSIVE)
22.10.2026,
12:20
Withdrawing from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) could have serious consequences for Armenia, given the ongoing struggle between the West and the East, according to economist Hrant Mikayelyan.
YEREVAN, October 22. /ARKA/. Withdrawing from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) could have serious consequences for Armenia, given the ongoing struggle between the West and the East, according to economist Hrant Mikayelyan.
Representatives from Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan within the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council have prepared a report on the potential consequences of suspending the EAEU Treaty with regard to Armenia. According to the authors' calculations, such a scenario could lead to a 15.6% contraction in Armenia’s GDP, amounting to $4.6 billion.
On geopolitical risks
"The consequences of leaving the EAEU could be severe for Armenia. Naturally, the current situation is partly a failure on the part of the Armenian authorities, as relations are currently strained. However, the core issue is geopolitical; in the present geopolitical landscape, Armenia has effectively become a focal point in the struggle between the West and the East.
The primary error made by the Armenian authorities is precisely that this has come to pass," Mikayelyan stated in an exclusive interview with the ARKA news agency.
The expert believes this should have been avoided, as such a situation carries numerous risks for Armenia. "Moreover, by and large, the consequences of all the wars in recent times are also linked to this that is, to geopolitics and, unfortunately, this is the situation that has emerged," he noted.
On the economic consequences
"Regarding the expected economic consequences for Armenia should it withdraw from the EAEU, this report examines many aspects and presents some interesting calculations there is certainly plenty to discuss here. In principle, most of the data appears reasonable, though the assessment of trends in remittances and exports to third countries raises some questions. While it is clear that a portion of these exports consists of re-exports, there are still points that warrant further scrutiny. It is possible that these figures are overstated," noted Mikayelyan.
He emphasized that the report provides a solid foundation for assessing potential consequences, though it is intended primarily for professional rather than political discussion.
"First, there is the question of whether Armenia will actually withdraw from the EAEU. Second, the scenario incorporates several uncertain variables, such as a potential increase in gas prices. The report cites $300 as the next price level, but that may or may not be the case; the price could remain unchanged, or it could even exceed $300," said Mikayelyan.
Key points of the report
The document, prepared by four EAEU member states, has been published on the Russian government’s website; it is intended for presentation at the December meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council. According to the authors' calculations, the scenario under consideration could lead to a 15.6% contraction in Armenia’s GDP amounting to $4.6 billion an increase in inflation by 14.9 percentage points relative to the baseline, and a 55.6% decline in trade turnover with the EAEU, falling from $7.99 billion to $3.55 billion.
The estimated price of gas would rise by approximately 69% from $177.5 to $300 per thousand cubic meters assuming the physical volume of supplies remains constant. The $300 figure is provided as an indicative price.
Regarding labor migration, the scenario entails the termination of the employment regime established by the EAEU Treaty, including the reinstatement of requirements for work patents or permits. Remittances from EAEU countries are projected to fall from $3.95 billion to $1.85 billion. The scenario assumes that Armenia would retain its full membership in the CIS.
On Armenia’s plans for closer ties with the EU
On March 26, 2025, the Armenian Parliament passed a law to initiate the process of the country’s accession to the European Union; President Vahagn Khachaturyan signed the legislation into law on April 4. The document itself does not constitute the submission of a formal membership application.
In December 2025, Armenia and the EU approved a new strategic partnership agenda, and the first Armenia–EU summit took place in May 2026.
In August 2026, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that the process of applying for EU membership could potentially begin in the near future. The Armenian authorities state their intention to remain part of the EAEU, provided that this remains compatible with closer ties to the European Union. The holding of a referendum is contingent upon the submission of an application, the receipt of a positive response, and the determination of subsequent steps and a timeline.
Representatives from Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan within the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council have prepared a report on the potential consequences of suspending the EAEU Treaty with regard to Armenia. According to the authors' calculations, such a scenario could lead to a 15.6% contraction in Armenia’s GDP, amounting to $4.6 billion.
On geopolitical risks
"The consequences of leaving the EAEU could be severe for Armenia. Naturally, the current situation is partly a failure on the part of the Armenian authorities, as relations are currently strained. However, the core issue is geopolitical; in the present geopolitical landscape, Armenia has effectively become a focal point in the struggle between the West and the East.
The primary error made by the Armenian authorities is precisely that this has come to pass," Mikayelyan stated in an exclusive interview with the ARKA news agency.
The expert believes this should have been avoided, as such a situation carries numerous risks for Armenia. "Moreover, by and large, the consequences of all the wars in recent times are also linked to this that is, to geopolitics and, unfortunately, this is the situation that has emerged," he noted.
On the economic consequences
"Regarding the expected economic consequences for Armenia should it withdraw from the EAEU, this report examines many aspects and presents some interesting calculations there is certainly plenty to discuss here. In principle, most of the data appears reasonable, though the assessment of trends in remittances and exports to third countries raises some questions. While it is clear that a portion of these exports consists of re-exports, there are still points that warrant further scrutiny. It is possible that these figures are overstated," noted Mikayelyan.
He emphasized that the report provides a solid foundation for assessing potential consequences, though it is intended primarily for professional rather than political discussion.
"First, there is the question of whether Armenia will actually withdraw from the EAEU. Second, the scenario incorporates several uncertain variables, such as a potential increase in gas prices. The report cites $300 as the next price level, but that may or may not be the case; the price could remain unchanged, or it could even exceed $300," said Mikayelyan.
Key points of the report
The document, prepared by four EAEU member states, has been published on the Russian government’s website; it is intended for presentation at the December meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council. According to the authors' calculations, the scenario under consideration could lead to a 15.6% contraction in Armenia’s GDP amounting to $4.6 billion an increase in inflation by 14.9 percentage points relative to the baseline, and a 55.6% decline in trade turnover with the EAEU, falling from $7.99 billion to $3.55 billion.
The estimated price of gas would rise by approximately 69% from $177.5 to $300 per thousand cubic meters assuming the physical volume of supplies remains constant. The $300 figure is provided as an indicative price.
Regarding labor migration, the scenario entails the termination of the employment regime established by the EAEU Treaty, including the reinstatement of requirements for work patents or permits. Remittances from EAEU countries are projected to fall from $3.95 billion to $1.85 billion. The scenario assumes that Armenia would retain its full membership in the CIS.
On Armenia’s plans for closer ties with the EU
On March 26, 2025, the Armenian Parliament passed a law to initiate the process of the country’s accession to the European Union; President Vahagn Khachaturyan signed the legislation into law on April 4. The document itself does not constitute the submission of a formal membership application.
In December 2025, Armenia and the EU approved a new strategic partnership agenda, and the first Armenia–EU summit took place in May 2026.
In August 2026, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that the process of applying for EU membership could potentially begin in the near future. The Armenian authorities state their intention to remain part of the EAEU, provided that this remains compatible with closer ties to the European Union. The holding of a referendum is contingent upon the submission of an application, the receipt of a positive response, and the determination of subsequent steps and a timeline.
