World Bank: industrial output continued to contract in Armenia

YEREVAN, November 20. /ARKA/. Economic activity growth in Armenia slowed to 5.3 percent (yoy, in real terms) in September, compared to 10.9 percent (yoy) in August, the World Bank says in its Armenia monthly economic update – November 2023.

It says growth in services (excluding trade) decelerated to 4.6 percent in September after exceptional double-digit growth in August.

Among services, transport declined by 25 percent (yoy), whereas communications grew by 8.7 percent. Although growth rates in the construction and trade sectors also eased, they remained robust at 21.8 percent and 15.7 percent (yoy), respectively.

However, industrial output continued to contract (–4.3 percent yoy in September), due to an 8 percent (yoy) decline in manufacturing and shrinkage in the electricity and energy sub-sectors. This was somewhat compensated by slight growth in mining (1.3 percent, yoy). The economic activity index grew by 9.7 percent (yoy) in the January–September period. 

Armenian government’s growth projection for 2023 is 7%; the inflation is expected to be 4% (±1.5%). The Central Bank's growth forecast is 6.9%, with 12-month inflation expected to be slightly below the 4% target.

Fitch predicted for the Armenian economy 6.1% growth in 2023, Moody's forecast is 7%, and that of S&P is 7.5%. The World Bank estimates that Armenia's GDP growth will be 4.4% this year, the EDB expects it to grow by 7.5%, the EBRD’s growth forecast is 5%. -0-