Armenia should forget about foreign investment for a long time, economist says
30.11.2020,
15:34
Armenia should forget about foreign investments for a long time, Director of Ameria advisory company Tigran Jrbashyan said during a discussion on the post-war economy on Armenia's Public TV.
YEREVAN, November 30. /ARKA/. Armenia should forget about foreign investments for a long time, Director of Ameria advisory company Tigran Jrbashyan said during a discussion on the post-war economy on Armenia's Public TV.
According to him, the Armenian public at large has not yet grasped the scale of the reality it is going to face.
“It is necessary to understand that there will be no investments in the country for a long time. There will also be an outflow of capital, because from the point of view of predictability of the future, business entities need certainty, and there is none of it in Armenia now. Some businesses will move to Georgia, Russia or other countries or will be closed altogether,” Jrbashyan said.
He also noted that the demographic crisis will deepen, which is not yet visible due to travel restrictions, but it will have a lasting effect.
“Since there are strong Armenian diasporas in many countries, it is easier for Armenian citizens to leave for Russia, the United States or other countries. This will lead to a serious demographic problem, since our main capital is human: in 2023 the number of pensioners will increase by 30%. On the other hand, there are serious expenditures - I mean the armed forces, the security system, etc., and the wounded soldiers, who should also be supported by the government,” Jrbashyan said.
“There is a need for a paradigm change; the previous inertial development cannot continue. Now, there is a very good chance to shake things up, to form a new vision of the future, since there will no longer be an opportunity to advance on a false agenda,' Jrbashyan said.
According to Jrbashyan, clear-cut development scenarios are needed, such as establishment of economic and diplomatic relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, development of relations with Russia, but they must contain clear analysis of what result will be obtained.
“We are not yet able to form our own agenda; there are many uncertainties, but it is necessary to understand what opportunities are in place. Unfortunately, we have no economic elite that can contribute to the formation of this agenda,” Jrbashyan said.
According to Artak Manukyan, an MP from the ruling My Step alliance, the population's expectations for the future are uncertain, and it is very important now to give them optimistic messages and present targeted programs.
“At the moment, there are opportunities, including work with donors that can assist in the restoration of infrastructures. However, to consider and draw up scenarios, internal stability and mobilization of resources are needed,”Manukyan said.
"There is a great temptation now to come up with long-term formulations about how to resolve the current situation - such as to be competitive and more protected. But there are also steps, the implementation of which now can give a long-term result, for example, stimulating the birth rate, providing more opportunities to agriculture, etc.
“There are about 40% of unused land in the country. There are opportunities in the construction sector, and there is also one problem - we consider pensioners and people with disabilities as a passive asset do not create preconditions for them to become a working asset,” said Manukyan.
The MP also did not rule out the possibility of implementing various donor programs, ranging from assistance programs in Artsakh and Armenia.
“These are the areas that need constant work. I agree that now it is necessary to change economic priorities and in addition, there is a very high probability that in 2021 we will have to repeatedly revise the budget,” said Manukyan. -0-
According to him, the Armenian public at large has not yet grasped the scale of the reality it is going to face.
“It is necessary to understand that there will be no investments in the country for a long time. There will also be an outflow of capital, because from the point of view of predictability of the future, business entities need certainty, and there is none of it in Armenia now. Some businesses will move to Georgia, Russia or other countries or will be closed altogether,” Jrbashyan said.
He also noted that the demographic crisis will deepen, which is not yet visible due to travel restrictions, but it will have a lasting effect.
“Since there are strong Armenian diasporas in many countries, it is easier for Armenian citizens to leave for Russia, the United States or other countries. This will lead to a serious demographic problem, since our main capital is human: in 2023 the number of pensioners will increase by 30%. On the other hand, there are serious expenditures - I mean the armed forces, the security system, etc., and the wounded soldiers, who should also be supported by the government,” Jrbashyan said.
“There is a need for a paradigm change; the previous inertial development cannot continue. Now, there is a very good chance to shake things up, to form a new vision of the future, since there will no longer be an opportunity to advance on a false agenda,' Jrbashyan said.
According to Jrbashyan, clear-cut development scenarios are needed, such as establishment of economic and diplomatic relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, development of relations with Russia, but they must contain clear analysis of what result will be obtained.
“We are not yet able to form our own agenda; there are many uncertainties, but it is necessary to understand what opportunities are in place. Unfortunately, we have no economic elite that can contribute to the formation of this agenda,” Jrbashyan said.
According to Artak Manukyan, an MP from the ruling My Step alliance, the population's expectations for the future are uncertain, and it is very important now to give them optimistic messages and present targeted programs.
“At the moment, there are opportunities, including work with donors that can assist in the restoration of infrastructures. However, to consider and draw up scenarios, internal stability and mobilization of resources are needed,”Manukyan said.
"There is a great temptation now to come up with long-term formulations about how to resolve the current situation - such as to be competitive and more protected. But there are also steps, the implementation of which now can give a long-term result, for example, stimulating the birth rate, providing more opportunities to agriculture, etc.
“There are about 40% of unused land in the country. There are opportunities in the construction sector, and there is also one problem - we consider pensioners and people with disabilities as a passive asset do not create preconditions for them to become a working asset,” said Manukyan.
The MP also did not rule out the possibility of implementing various donor programs, ranging from assistance programs in Artsakh and Armenia.
“These are the areas that need constant work. I agree that now it is necessary to change economic priorities and in addition, there is a very high probability that in 2021 we will have to repeatedly revise the budget,” said Manukyan. -0-
