Armenia may well maintain growth in business activity this year– economist
YEREVAN, March 28. /ARKA/. If there are favorable external factors and preconditions, Armenia may well preserve the growth of business activity, which, however, may turn out to be below 9%, economist Tatul Manaseryan said today.
"Our forecasts differ a little from the forecasts of influential international organizations in terms of growth figures, but they coincide with positive trends forecasts. For example, last September the EBRD predicted 8% growth for Armenia for 2022 and its slowdown to 4% in 2023. The EBRD has not revised this forecast yet. Trade and services are expected to record double digit growth. The influx of a significant number of people and businesses from Russia has increased the demand for services. This is combined with a significant increase of remittances," Manaseryan said during a discussion on the main directions of Eurasian integration.
He reminded that the Armenian Economy Ministry estimated the real GDP growth in 2022 at 14% against 7% projection of the government.
The International Monetary Fund forecasted 11% growth for 2022, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank - 7% growth, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development - 8%, and the Eurasian Development Bank - 12.5%.
"Last December, the Central Bank of Armenia predicted that the country's economy would grow by 12.9% in 2022 and inflation would be 9-9.5%. The WB predicts that economic growth for 2023 at 4.1%. All the above-mentioned projections should also be considered in the context of global economic trends. In particular, the growth of the global economy is expected to slow down to 1.7% in 2023, down from 3%, predicted six months earlier," Manaseryan said.
According to Armenia's National Statistical Service, the country's economic activity registered a 14.2% growth in January-December 2022, compared to 2021. According to the agency's preliminary data, in January-February 2023, the economic activity upped by 10.9% compared to January-February 2022. --0--
